Friday, September 6, 2013

RYAN STEELE'S NFL PICKS WEEK 1

By Ryan Steele

***Already have a best bet winner in the books with Denver (-7.5) over Baltimore.  Got four more Best Bets that you can access by purchasing using the BUY NOW tab on the homepage.  Picks will be promptly delivered via e-mail.  Here is how the rest of the schedule looks with leans or no opinions on the other contests.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7) VS. Tennessee Titans:  The Titans are one team I just can't ever back on the road given the fact they have a truly horrendous defense and one of the worst passer's in the NFL.  The Steelers meanwhile are almost always money at home, especially in openers.  However the Titans will be able to run on the Steelers which could help them control the clock a bit and keep this one from getting out of hand.  Not in love with the game given the Steelers' own issues on defense but they get the overall lean at home.  THE PICK:  Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:*******THIS GAME IS ONE OF RYAN STEELE'S BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK.  USE THE BUY NOW TAB TO PURCHASE.*****

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS:  Home underdog alert.  This is another sucker bet line as the oddsmakers clearly want you to bet Seattle given all the pub about them being a Super Bowl contender and giving only 3.5 to a shaky Carolina team who got off to a horrendous start last season. Very tempting indeed but home underdogs in Week 1 have universally been a great bet given the fact the home team feels a bit ticked off at the disrespect they are getting without even playing a game.  Cam Newton is fully capable of keeping the Panthers in this one and a field goal game is not out of the question.  Seattle is a terrific team with the best defense in the NFL however and can easily control the clock.  Too much uncertainty here.  No thanks.  THE PICK:  PASS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5) VS. Oakland Raiders:*******THIS GAME IS ONE OF RYAN STEELE'S BETS BETS AND IS FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.  USE THE BUY NOW TAB TO PURCHASE.******

New England Patriots (-8.5) VS. BUFFALO BILLS:  I have said on more than one occasion that home underdogs opening day are always good bets.  This is especially true when it is a divisional game.  The angles are pointing heavily on the betting angles for the Bills BUT the giant issue in this one is the fact E.J. Manuel is making his first start.  Could he pop off for 400-yards passing in his debut like Cam Newton two years ago?  Not likely at all, especially against a Bill Belichick coached team.  The Bills do have a history of hanging with the Patriots at home however so I will lean with them.  THE PICK:  Buffalo Bills (+8.5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) VS. Miami Dolphins:  Here is another rule of thumb that has helped me make some big money in this business and avoid pitfalls.  Avoid games between two bad teams which is what we have here.  While the Browns and Dolphins stand every chance of improving, they still have a long way to go to get to playoff mode.  Thus I always throw games like these out.  However in the interest of helping those who have to pick every game, the Browns have a 32-10 ATS angle as a slight favorite at home opening week against a non-division foe.  THE PICK:  Cleveland Browns (-1)

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) VS. Cincinnati Bengals:********THIS GAME IS ONE OF RYAN STEELE'S BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK AND IS FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.  USE THE BUY NOW TAB TO PURCHASE.*****

DETROIT LIONS (-5) VS. Minnesota Vikings:******THIS GAME IS ONE OF RYAN STEELE'S BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK AND IS FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.  USE THE BUY NOW TAB TO PURCHASE.******

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) VS. Atlanta Falcons:  Best game of the week hands down between two of the best offenses in all of football.  They split the series last season and are likely to do so in 2013 as well.  Defense is in short supply on both sides and in an expected shootout like this if the spread if 3 or less, you ride with the home team.  THE PICK:  New Orleans Saints (-3)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) VS. New York Jets:  If it wasn't for the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New York Jets would be the worst team in the entire NFL.  They throw rookie QB Geno Smith to the wolves and the kid if clearly not ready for this off his 3-INT mess in his last preseason game versus the New York Giants.  On top of that, star CB Darrell Revis is back with a massive chip on his shoulder going up against his old team.  The Buc's have one of the most improved defenses in football so this one can get ugly quick.  THE PICK:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4.5) VS. Green Bay Packers:  Conflicting angles going in both directions here so this is a scary one.  With the spread at 4.5, it is in the danger area of being volatile.  The Packers had no answer for Kapernick in the playoffs last season however and that the image that stand out in my brain.  THE PICK:  San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)  BONUS:  THE OVER of 48 looks like a great bet!!!!!!!!!!

ST. LOUIS RAMS (-4.5) VS. Arizona Cardinals:  My mantra of avoiding betting in games between two bad teams is in play here but the 4.5 is high in my opinion as I thought this would be a classic 3.  THE PICK:  Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) VS. New York Giants:  Toughest game to call of the week.  The Giants are 4-0 in Jerry Jones' new stadium but you have to think Dallas is going to be pumped to stop that trend.  The angles go both ways in this one, with Dallas qualifying for a 20-6 ATS home favorite angle versus a divisional foe, while the Giants haev a 33-19-2 ATS line going their way.  Flip a coin or pass.  THE PICK:  PASS

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) VS. Philadelphia Eagles:  The big unknown is how Chip Kelly's offense will work in a real game that counts.  No one knows which makes this game one big risk to invest in.  No thanks you II.  THE PICK:  PASS

Houston Texans (-3.5) VS. San Diego Chargers:  Another sucker bet here as Houston will be played by the majority given the low line.  The Chargers have rebuilt their entire front office and while QB Philip Rivers looks on the downside of his career, the extra half-point has me leaning their way.  THE PICK:  San Diego Chargers (+3.5)


No comments:

Post a Comment